Sunderland v Arsenal — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
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Model edge
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Model prob
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Reliability
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SunderlandvArsenal
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00Sunderland8.40Betfair
Draw4.40Betfair
Arsenal1.51Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 11 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WDWLLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.58 / 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | vs Hull City (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Brentford (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Fulham (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | at Ipswich Town FC (A) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-08-22 | at Ipswich (A) | 1-2 | L |
WDWWLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.67 / 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | at Napoli (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-07 | at FC Isloch Minsk R. (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Chelsea (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-31 | at Aston Villa (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Torpedo Zhodino (H) | 2-4 | L |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Konsa Defender |
2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
 B. White Defender |
1 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — | 8.2 |
 C. Tzolis Midfielder |
1 | 94 | 0 | 2 | — | 8.2 |
 Cristhian Mosquera Defender |
1 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.9 |
 David Raya Goalkeeper |
1 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.6 |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | DWL |
| Arsenal | 2 | 9 | 3 | +5 | WWW |
Sunderland: 5 pts behind 1st · 4 pts above 20th
Arsenal: level on points with 1st · 9 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Sunderland 0 wins2 drawsArsenal 4avg 3 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Arsenal FC v Sunderland AFC | 3-0 | Premier League |
| 2025-11-08 | Sunderland AFC v Arsenal FC | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 2017-05-16 | Arsenal v Sunderland | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 2016-10-29 | Sunderland v Arsenal | 1-4 | Premier League |
| 2016-04-24 | Sunderland v Arsenal | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2015-12-05 | Arsenal v Sunderland | 3-1 | Premier League |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Sunderlandsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| H. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Methalie | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| H. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Methalie | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| H. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Methalie | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| H. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Methalie | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| D. Methalie | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| S. Adingra | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
Arsenalsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| Bruno Guimaraes | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Saliba | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| J. Timber | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| G. Martinelli | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| C. Mosquera | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Gabriel Jesus | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| Bruno Guimaraes | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Saliba | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| J. Timber | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| G. Martinelli | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| C. Mosquera | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Gabriel Jesus | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| Bruno Guimaraes | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Saliba | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sunderland play Arsenal?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 11 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.