Puebla v Toluca — Liga MX prediction, odds and analysis
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Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
PueblavToluca
Wed 16 Sept, 02:00Puebla4.75Betfair Sportsbook
Draw4.20Betfair Sportsbook
Toluca1.74Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 7 bookmakers · prices observed 8 d ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Estadio Cuauhtémoc (home ground — gazetteer)
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.58 / 2.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | at Club America (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Santos Laguna (H) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-18 | at CF Pachuca (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-13 | at San Diego (A) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-10 | at Austin (A) | 0-3 | L |
WWWWWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.92 / 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | vs Monterrey (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-03 | vs Leon (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-31 | vs FC Juarez (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-27 | vs Austin (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | at Club Queretaro (A) | 2-1 | W |
League standings
No stored table rows for either side yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected. no standings rows held for either side.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Puebla 1 win2 drawsToluca 3avg 2.5 goalsBTTS 33%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Puebla v Toluca | 0-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Toluca v Puebla | 3-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2025-03-15 | Puebla v Toluca | 0-3 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-10-23 | Toluca v Puebla | 5-0 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2024-01-27 | Puebla v Toluca | 1-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
| 2023-11-01 | Toluca v Puebla | 0-1 | Mexico Liga MX |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 4 Sept, 07:04 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v PueblaAtlante FC v PachucaTijuana v QuerétaroToluca v AtlasMonterrey v TigresCruz Azul v América
Frequently asked questions
When do Puebla play Toluca?
Kick-off is Wed 16 Sept, 02:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 8 d ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.