Sao Paulo v Boca Juniors — Copa Sudamericana prediction, odds and analysis
At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Sao PaulovBoca Juniors
Wed 16 Sept, 01:30Sao Paulo2.32Betfair
Draw3.30Casumo
Boca Juniors3.55Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 13 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Estádio do Morumbi (home ground — gazetteer)Kickoff weather: 16°C · rain 0 mm · wind 8.1 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWWLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.17 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | at Boca Juniors (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Atletico-MG (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs CA Mineiro (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs RB Bragantino (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | at Chapecoense AF (A) | 0-1 | L |
WDDDWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.92 / 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | vs Sao Paulo (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Gimnasia M. (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-09-05 | at Gimnasia Mendoza (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-09-03 | at Velez Sarsfield (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Lanus (H) | 1-0 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Marchesín Goalkeeper |
12 | 1,088 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 M. Weigandt Defender |
11 | 772 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.9 |
 J. Barinaga Defender |
9 | 734 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 6.9 |
 A. Bareiro Attacker |
10 | 706 | 3 | 1 | 4Y | 6.6 |
 E. Zeballos Attacker |
8 | 533 | 1 | 3 | — | 7.1 |
Competition context
A league table does not apply to a cup tie, so none is shown.
| Round | Quarter-finals |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Boca Juniors v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | World — CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Team sheets as announced 2026-09-09 07:50 — positions are the provider's own, never predicted.
4-3-3
| 1 | Á. Montero | G |
| 17 | L. Lozano | D |
| 2 | L. Di Lollo | D |
| 42 | F. Herrera | D |
| 3 | L. Blanco | D |
| 8 | T. Belmonte | M |
| 5 | L. Paredes | M |
| 25 | S. Ascacíbar | M |
| 20 | A. Velasco | F |
| 16 | M. Merentiel | F |
| 19 | L. Flores | F |
Bench
12 L. Brey G · 15 W. Alarcón M · 4 N. Figal D · 24 D. Gorosito D · 7 C. Palacios M · 26 Marco Pellegrino D · 23 C. Rey M · 11 Á. Romero F · 46 M. Satas D · 30 E. Valencia F · 22 S. Villa F · 21 K. Zenón M
Coach R. Arruabarrena — from the announced team sheet
3-4-2-1
| 23 | Rafael | G |
| 22 | Domingos Duarte | D |
| 5 | R. Arboleda | D |
| 35 | Sabino | D |
| 19 | Lucas Ramon | M |
| 29 | Pablo Maia | M |
| 8 | Marcos Antônio | M |
| 12 | Iago | M |
| 37 | Artur | M |
| 10 | Luciano | M |
| 9 | J. Calleri | F |
Bench
31 Carlos Coronel G · 43 G. Santana F · 48 D. Ferreira M · 18 Wendell D · 80 Cauly M · 17 André Silva F · 27 Victor Sá F · 2 R. Tolói D · 94 Danielzinho M · 11 Ferreira F · 34 Tetê F · 28 Newton M
Coach Dorival Júnior — from the announced team sheet
Team sheets fetched 2026-09-09 07:50 — as announced, never predicted.
Lineup strength adjusts the engine's prediction ledger (expected-goals context); it does not change the production score — that rule is architectural, not an omission.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 9 Sept, 07:20
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Vasco da Gama v Independiente Santa FeClube Atlético Mineiro v SantosMontevideo City Torque v Club Cienciano
Frequently asked questions
When do Sao Paulo play Boca Juniors?
Kick-off is Wed 16 Sept, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.