SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel 
1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98Model behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.24
fair price
44.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 45%
Model divergence +0.3 pts
Edge vs fair -6.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
SV Darmstadt 98
45%
Draw
29%
Holstein Kiel
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 45% / 26% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices SV Darmstadt 98 45% against the market’s fair 45% — a +0.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SV Darmstadt 98 29% · Holstein Kiel 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 45.0% | 2.24 | 2.10 | -6.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.85 | 3.60 | -6.4% |
| Holstein Kiel | 26.1% | 3.41 | 3.20 | -6.2% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | SV Darmstadt 98 | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.05 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 1.24 | 1.02 | 1.24 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Coral | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Smarkets | 1.95 | 3.15 | 2.98 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98 — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SV Darmstadt 98Fair line (devig) — SV Darmstadt 98
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SV Darmstadt 98
LLLLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.58 / 2.92
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 25% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | A v Borussia Dortmund | 0-4 | L |
| 2024-05-12 | H v TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0-6 | L |
| 2024-05-04 | A v VfL Wolfsburg | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-04-28 | H v 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-04-20 | A v 1. FC Köln | 2-0 | W |
Holstein KielLLWWDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.92
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | A v Dortmund | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-05-10 | H v Freiburg | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-05-04 | A v Augsburg | 3-1 | W |
| 2025-04-26 | H v M'gladbach | 4-3 | W |
| 2025-04-19 | A v RB Leipzig | 1-1 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld
Frequently asked questions
When do SV Darmstadt 98 play Holstein Kiel?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel?
The statistical model prices SV Darmstadt 98 at 45%, the draw at 29% and Holstein Kiel at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.24 / 3.85 / 3.41 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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