VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin
1X2 · VfL BochumModel behind market recent
Market
2.30
price
43.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.48
fair price
40.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 45%
Model divergence +4.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
VfL Bochum
45%
Draw
29%
Hertha Berlin
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 40% / 26% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices VfL Bochum 45% against the market’s fair 40% — a +4.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): VfL Bochum 29% · Hertha Berlin 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Bochum | 45.0% | 2.48 | 2.30 | -7.1% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.88 | 3.60 | -7.1% |
| Hertha Berlin | 26.1% | 2.96 | 2.75 | -7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | VfL Bochum | Draw | Hertha Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.59 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Smarkets | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.17 |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · VfL Bochum — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — VfL BochumFair line (devig) — VfL Bochum
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
VfL BochumW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Antwerp | 1-0 | W |
Hertha Berlin
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia BielefeldSV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel
Frequently asked questions
When do VfL Bochum play Hertha Berlin?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:30 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin?
The statistical model prices VfL Bochum at 45%, the draw at 29% and Hertha Berlin at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.48 / 3.88 / 2.96 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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