VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin PREDICTION
BUN Fri 7 Aug, 19:30 UK · in 24d
1X2 · VfL BochumModel behind market recent
Market
2.30
price
43.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.48
fair price
40.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 40%model 45%
Model divergence +4.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
VfL Bochum
45%
Draw
29%
Hertha Berlin
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 40% / 26% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices VfL Bochum 45% against the market’s fair 40% — a +4.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): VfL Bochum 29% · Hertha Berlin 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia BielefeldSV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel
Frequently asked questions
When do VfL Bochum play Hertha Berlin?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:30 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin?
The statistical model prices VfL Bochum at 45%, the draw at 29% and Hertha Berlin at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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