1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück
1X2 · 1. FC HeidenheimModel behind market recent
Market
1.48
price
67.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.60
fair price
62.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 63%model 45%
Model divergence -17.5 pts
Edge vs fair -7.5%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
1. FC Heidenheim
45%
Draw
29%
VfL Osnabrück
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 63% / 22% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices 1. FC Heidenheim 45% against the market’s fair 63% — a -17.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): 1. FC Heidenheim 29% · VfL Osnabrück 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 45.0% | 1.60 | 1.48 | -7.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.55 | 4.20 | -7.6% |
| VfL Osnabrück | 26.1% | 6.49 | 6.00 | -7.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | 1. FC Heidenheim | Draw | VfL Osnabrück |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| Smarkets | 1.41 | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.47 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · 1. FC Heidenheim — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — 1. FC HeidenheimFair line (devig) — 1. FC Heidenheim
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
1. FC HeidenheimNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
VfL Osnabrück
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v FK Jablonec | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia BielefeldSV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel
Frequently asked questions
When do 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Osnabrück?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück?
The statistical model prices 1. FC Heidenheim at 45%, the draw at 29% and VfL Osnabrück at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.60 / 4.55 / 6.49 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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