1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück PREDICTION
BUN Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK · in 24d
1X2 · 1. FC HeidenheimModel behind market recent
Market
1.48
price
67.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.60
fair price
62.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 63%model 45%
Model divergence -17.5 pts
Edge vs fair -7.5%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
1. FC Heidenheim
45%
Draw
29%
VfL Osnabrück
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 63% / 22% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices 1. FC Heidenheim 45% against the market’s fair 63% — a -17.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): 1. FC Heidenheim 29% · VfL Osnabrück 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia BielefeldSV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel
Frequently asked questions
When do 1. FC Heidenheim play VfL Osnabrück?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück?
The statistical model prices 1. FC Heidenheim at 45%, the draw at 29% and VfL Osnabrück at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.