SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel 
PREDICTION
BUN Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK · in 24d
1X2 · SV Darmstadt 98Model behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
2.24
fair price
44.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 45%
Model divergence +0.3 pts
Edge vs fair -6.1%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
SV Darmstadt 98
45%
Draw
29%
Holstein Kiel
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 45% / 26% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices SV Darmstadt 98 45% against the market’s fair 45% — a +0.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SV Darmstadt 98 29% · Holstein Kiel 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Bundesliga 2 - Germany fixtures
VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht BraunschweigKarlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld
Frequently asked questions
When do SV Darmstadt 98 play Holstein Kiel?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 12:00 UK time in the Bundesliga 2 - Germany.
What does the model expect for SV Darmstadt 98 v Holstein Kiel?
The statistical model prices SV Darmstadt 98 at 45%, the draw at 29% and Holstein Kiel at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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