FP

FC Porto

Primeira Liga - Portugal·1 of 18 in the table·27 points·Estádio do Dragão

Next match FC Porto v Estoril Sat 31 Oct, 20:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for FC Porto — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming9 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

1st

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

9

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sat 31 Oct20:30 Estoril H — 1.28Coral —

Form

last 6

WWWWWW 18 pts from 6

A GIL Vicente 1–0 +0.9

A Maritimo 2–1 +1.4

H Benfica 3–1 +1.4

A Casa Pia 4–1 +0.8

H Moreirense 2–1 +0.6

A Academico Viseu 3–0 —

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (9 matches) Model expected (9 priced) Ahead Behind

+9.9 points against the model's expectation over the 9 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 0.44 #1 of 18

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 18

Points over model expectation 9.9 #2 of 18

Goals scored 2.33 #3 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.33 #3 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.44 #1 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

47%

Scored before half time

of 15 goals

13%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 15 goals

7%

From the penalty spot

of 15 goals

0%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 4 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 9 stored fixtures (19 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

PRI Primeira Liga - Portugal 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

#1

Position

27

Points from 9 played

+17

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	17	27
2	Sport Lisboa e Benfica	8	17	19
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	9	10	18

FC Porto and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct20:30in 5d
   FC Porto Estoril

   PRI

   Regular Season - 10
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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