Casa Pia v FC Porto — Primeira Liga - Portugal prediction, odds and analysis
PRIAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Casa PiavFC Porto
Sat 12 Sept, 18:00Casa Pia15.50Matchbook
Draw6.80Betfair
FC Porto1.26Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Kickoff weather: 31.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.8 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
DLLLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 0.5 / 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | at Vitória SC (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Moreirense (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-24 | at GIL Vicente (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-17 | vs Benfica (H) | 0-7 | L |
| 2026-08-17 | vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (H) | 0-7 | L |
LWWWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.58 / 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 58% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | vs Manchester City (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-09-04 | vs Moreirense (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | at Academico Viseu (A) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | at Académico de Viseu FC (A) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Arouca (H) | 2-0 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 18 | 1 | 5 | -11 | |
| FC Porto | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 |
Casa Pia: 14 pts behind 1st · level on points with 18th
FC Porto: level on points with 1st · 14 pts above 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · football-data.org · updated 2026-09-11.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Casa Pia 1 win0 drawsFC Porto 5avg 2.8 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Casa Pia AC v FC Porto | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-08-24 | FC Porto v Casa Pia AC | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 2025-04-12 | Casa Pia AC v FC Porto | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-12-02 | FC Porto v Casa Pia AC | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| 2024-04-21 | Casa Pia AC v FC Porto | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-12-09 | FC Porto v Casa Pia AC | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 6 Sept, 07:06
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Primeira Liga - Portugal fixtures
Nacional v AlvercaAcadémico de Viseu v Vitória SCArouca v Santa ClaraBenfica v Gil VicenteFamalicão v Sporting LisbonRio Ave FC v CF Estrela
Frequently asked questions
When do Casa Pia play FC Porto?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 18:00 UK time in the Primeira Liga - Portugal.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.