FC Copenhagen v Lyngby
1X2 · FC CopenhagenModel behind market recent
Market
1.42
price
70.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.48
fair price
67.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 68%model 45%
Model divergence -22.7 pts
Edge vs fair -3.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
FC Copenhagen
45%
Draw
29%
Lyngby
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 68% / 18% / 14%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FC Copenhagen 45% against the market’s fair 68% — a -22.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FC Copenhagen 29% · Lyngby 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen | 45.0% | 1.48 | 1.42 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 5.43 | 5.20 | -4.3% |
| Lyngby | 26.1% | 7.14 | 7.50 | +5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FC Copenhagen | Draw | Lyngby |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.85 | 6.10 |
| Smarkets | 1.39 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Casumo | 1.36 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.40 / 5.16 / 6.78 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · FC Copenhagen — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FC CopenhagenFair line (devig) — FC Copenhagen
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FC CopenhagenW
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v AC Horsens | 3-2 | W |
Lyngby
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
Viborg FF v OB Odense BKAGF Aarhus v Brondby IFSonderjyskE v FC MidtjyllandAC Horsens v FC NordsjaellandRanders FC v Silkeborg IF
Frequently asked questions
When do FC Copenhagen play Lyngby?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 15:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for FC Copenhagen v Lyngby?
The statistical model prices FC Copenhagen at 45%, the draw at 29% and Lyngby at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FC Copenhagen v Lyngby?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.48 / 5.43 / 7.14 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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