SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland
1X2 · SonderjyskEModel behind market recent
Market
5.30
price
18.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
5.49
fair price
18.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 18%model 45%
Model divergence +26.8 pts
Edge vs fair -3.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
SonderjyskE
45%
Draw
29%
FC Midtjylland
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 18% / 21% / 61%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices SonderjyskE 45% against the market’s fair 18% — a +26.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SonderjyskE 30% · FC Midtjylland 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SonderjyskE | 45.0% | 5.49 | 5.30 | -3.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.74 | 4.40 | -7.2% |
| FC Midtjylland | 26.1% | 1.65 | 1.57 | -4.7% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | SonderjyskE | Draw | FC Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Smarkets | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.55 |
| Sky Bet | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
| 888sport | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.56 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| BoyleSports | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| LeoVegas | 4.85 | 4.30 | 1.53 |
| Grosvenor | 5.30 | 4.10 | 1.56 |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.20 | 4.00 | 1.52 |
| Virgin Bet | 5.20 | 4.00 | 1.52 |
| Casumo | 5.30 | 4.20 | 1.56 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 5.20 / 4.49 / 1.56 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SonderjyskE — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SonderjyskEFair line (devig) — SonderjyskE
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SonderjyskE
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Midtjylland
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 6 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Cardiff | 6-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do SonderjyskE play FC Midtjylland?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland?
The statistical model prices SonderjyskE at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Midtjylland at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for SonderjyskE v FC Midtjylland?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 5.49 / 4.74 / 1.65 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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