AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland
1X2 · AC HorsensModel behind market recent
Market
3.75
price
26.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.89
fair price
25.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 26%model 45%
Model divergence +19.3 pts
Edge vs fair -3.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AC Horsens
45%
Draw
29%
FC Nordsjaelland
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 26% / 26% / 49%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AC Horsens 45% against the market’s fair 26% — a +19.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AC Horsens 30% · FC Nordsjaelland 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens | 45.0% | 3.89 | 3.75 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.88 | 3.70 | -4.5% |
| FC Nordsjaelland | 26.1% | 2.06 | 1.98 | -4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | AC Horsens | Draw | FC Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
| 888sport | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10 | 3.40 | 1.83 |
| LeoVegas | 3.45 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Smarkets | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.97 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.60 | 3.55 | 1.87 |
| Grosvenor | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.60 | 3.55 | 1.87 |
| Casumo | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.93 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.70 / 3.69 / 1.96 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · AC Horsens — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AC HorsensFair line (devig) — AC Horsens
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
AC HorsensL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 3
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v FC Copenhagen | 2-3 | L |
FC Nordsjaelland
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
Viborg FF v OB Odense BKAGF Aarhus v Brondby IFSonderjyskE v FC MidtjyllandFC Copenhagen v LyngbyRanders FC v Silkeborg IF
Frequently asked questions
When do AC Horsens play FC Nordsjaelland?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland?
The statistical model prices AC Horsens at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Nordsjaelland at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.89 / 3.88 / 2.06 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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