AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland PREDICTION
DS Sun 26 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 12d
1X2 · AC HorsensModel behind market recent
Market
3.75
price
26.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.89
fair price
25.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 26%model 45%
Model divergence +19.3 pts
Edge vs fair -3.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AC Horsens
45%
Draw
29%
FC Nordsjaelland
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 26% / 26% / 49%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AC Horsens 45% against the market’s fair 26% — a +19.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AC Horsens 30% · FC Nordsjaelland 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
Viborg FF v OB Odense BKAGF Aarhus v Brondby IFSonderjyskE v FC MidtjyllandFC Copenhagen v LyngbyRanders FC v Silkeborg IF
Frequently asked questions
When do AC Horsens play FC Nordsjaelland?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for AC Horsens v FC Nordsjaelland?
The statistical model prices AC Horsens at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Nordsjaelland at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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