AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF
1X2 · AGF AarhusPricing inefficiency recent
Market
2.40
price
41.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.34
fair price
42.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 45%
Model divergence +2.3 pts
Edge vs fair +2.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AGF Aarhus
45%
Draw
29%
Brondby IF
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 25% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AGF Aarhus 45% against the market’s fair 43% — a +2.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AGF Aarhus 29% · Brondby IF 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGF Aarhus | 45.0% | 2.34 | 2.40 | +2.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.95 | 3.65 | -7.7% |
| Brondby IF | 26.1% | 3.13 | 3.00 | -4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.66 · Under: 2.16 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | AGF Aarhus | Draw | Brondby IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Smarkets | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.94 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.65 | 2.96 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Grosvenor | 2.35 | 3.55 | 2.70 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Casumo | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Coral | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.23 / 3.77 / 2.98 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · AGF Aarhus — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — AGF AarhusFair line (devig) — AGF Aarhus
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
AGF Aarhus
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Brondby IF
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 4 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Odense | 4-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do AGF Aarhus play Brondby IF?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF?
The statistical model prices AGF Aarhus at 45%, the draw at 29% and Brondby IF at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.34 / 3.95 / 3.13 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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