AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF PREDICTION
DS Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK · in 11d
1X2 · AGF AarhusPricing inefficiency recent
Market
2.40
price
41.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.34
fair price
42.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 43%model 45%
Model divergence +2.3 pts
Edge vs fair +2.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
AGF Aarhus
45%
Draw
29%
Brondby IF
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 43% / 25% / 32%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices AGF Aarhus 45% against the market’s fair 43% — a +2.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): AGF Aarhus 29% · Brondby IF 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Denmark Superliga fixtures
Viborg FF v OB Odense BKSonderjyskE v FC MidtjyllandFC Copenhagen v LyngbyAC Horsens v FC NordsjaellandRanders FC v Silkeborg IF
Frequently asked questions
When do AGF Aarhus play Brondby IF?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for AGF Aarhus v Brondby IF?
The statistical model prices AGF Aarhus at 45%, the draw at 29% and Brondby IF at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.