Randers FC v Silkeborg IF
1X2 · Randers FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.81
price
55.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.90
fair price
52.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 53%model 45%
Model divergence -7.7 pts
Edge vs fair -4.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Randers FC
45%
Draw
29%
Silkeborg IF
26%
market fair (devig · sharp): 53% / 24% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Randers FC 45% against the market’s fair 53% — a -7.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Randers FC 30% · Silkeborg IF 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randers FC | 45.0% | 1.90 | 1.81 | -4.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.10 | 4.00 | -2.4% |
| Silkeborg IF | 26.1% | 4.37 | 4.50 | +3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.65 · Under: 2.18 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Randers FC | Draw | Silkeborg IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| BoyleSports | 1.60 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Grosvenor | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.66 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.66 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Casumo | 1.71 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.80 / 3.89 / 4.15 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Randers FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Randers FCFair line (devig) — Randers FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Randers FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Silkeborg IF
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 6 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | H v Thisted FC | 6-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Randers FC play Silkeborg IF?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 18:00 UK time in the Denmark Superliga.
What does the model expect for Randers FC v Silkeborg IF?
The statistical model prices Randers FC at 45%, the draw at 29% and Silkeborg IF at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Randers FC v Silkeborg IF?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.90 / 4.10 / 4.37 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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