FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat
1X2 · FK Sutjeska NikšićModel behind market recent
Market
4.80
price
20.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
4.88
fair price
20.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 21%model 45%
Model divergence +24.5 pts
Edge vs fair -1.6%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
45%
Draw
29%
FC Kairat
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 21% / 24% / 56%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FK Sutjeska Nikšić 45% against the market’s fair 21% — a +24.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FK Sutjeska Nikšić 29% · FC Kairat 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 45.0% | 4.88 | 4.80 | -1.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.26 | 4.20 | -1.3% |
| FC Kairat | 26.1% | 1.79 | 1.76 | -1.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | FK Sutjeska Nikšić | Draw | FC Kairat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.76 |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
| Grosvenor | 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Casumo | 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.63 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.60 | 3.75 | 1.63 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · FK Sutjeska Nikšić — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FK Sutjeska NikšićFair line (devig) — FK Sutjeska Nikšić
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
FC Kairat
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
FC Kairat
UEFA Champions League Qualification
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Frequently asked questions
When do FK Sutjeska Nikšić play FC Kairat?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.
What does the model expect for FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat?
The statistical model prices FK Sutjeska Nikšić at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Kairat at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.88 / 4.26 / 1.79 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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