Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk
1X2 · Universitatea CraiovaModel behind market recent
Market
1.29
price
77.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.31
fair price
76.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 76%model 45%
Model divergence -31.2 pts
Edge vs fair -1.7%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
Universitatea Craiova
45%
Draw
29%
FC Vitebsk
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 76% / 15% / 9%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Universitatea Craiova 45% against the market’s fair 76% — a -31.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Universitatea Craiova 30% · FC Vitebsk 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 45.0% | 1.31 | 1.29 | -1.7% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 6.71 | 6.60 | -1.7% |
| FC Vitebsk | 26.1% | 11.24 | 11.00 | -2.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | FC Vitebsk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.20 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.20 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 6.60 | 11.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.23 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.23 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Casumo | 1.26 | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.26 | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| 888sport | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Universitatea Craiova — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Universitatea CraiovaFair line (devig) — Universitatea Craiova
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Universitatea CraiovaD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Universitatea Cluj | 1-1 | D |
FC Vitebsk
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 3 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Arsenal | 3-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Universitatea Craiova
FC Vitebsk
UEFA Champions League Qualification
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Frequently asked questions
When do Universitatea Craiova play FC Vitebsk?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 18:30 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.
What does the model expect for Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk?
The statistical model prices Universitatea Craiova at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Vitebsk at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.31 / 6.71 / 11.24 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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