Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk PREDICTION

UCL Wed 15 Jul, 18:30 UK · in 15h 14m

1X2 · Universitatea CraiovaModel behind market recent

Market

1.29

price

77.5%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · consensus

1.31

fair price

76.2%

fair prob

Our model

2.22

model fair price

45.0%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 76%model 45%

Model divergence -31.2 pts Edge vs fair -1.7% 8 books priced

Model · 1X2

Universitatea Craiova

45%

Draw

29%

FC Vitebsk

26%

market fair (devig · consensus): 76% / 15% / 9%

Expected goals (λ)

1.508 — 1.1

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1

Engine confidence

unscored — outside the engine’s scan window

Model prices Universitatea Craiova 45% against the market’s fair 76% — a -31.2 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Universitatea Craiova 30% · FC Vitebsk 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Grounded team-news brief

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Full match view Odds & fair line Head-to-head Universitatea Craiova FC Vitebsk UEFA Champions League Qualification

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Frequently asked questions

When do Universitatea Craiova play FC Vitebsk?

Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 18:30 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.

What does the model expect for Universitatea Craiova v FC Vitebsk?

The statistical model prices Universitatea Craiova at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Vitebsk at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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