KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești
1X2 · KF EgnatiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.83
price
54.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.86
fair price
53.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 45%
Model divergence -8.8 pts
Edge vs fair -1.5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
KF Egnatia
45%
Draw
29%
Petrocub Hîncești
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 54% / 29% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices KF Egnatia 45% against the market’s fair 54% — a -8.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): KF Egnatia 30% · Petrocub Hîncești 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KF Egnatia | 45.0% | 1.86 | 1.83 | -1.5% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.50 | 3.45 | -1.3% |
| Petrocub Hîncești | 26.1% | 5.68 | 5.60 | -1.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | KF Egnatia | Draw | Petrocub Hîncești |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports | 1.73 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.83 | 3.45 | 5.60 |
| 888sport | 1.73 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Grosvenor | 1.81 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Casumo | 1.81 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.77 | 3.25 | 4.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.77 | 3.25 | 4.40 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · KF Egnatia — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — KF EgnatiaFair line (devig) — KF Egnatia
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
KF Egnatia
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Petrocub Hîncești
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
KF Egnatia
Petrocub Hîncești
UEFA Champions League Qualification
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Frequently asked questions
When do KF Egnatia play Petrocub Hîncești?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.
What does the model expect for KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești?
The statistical model prices KF Egnatia at 45%, the draw at 29% and Petrocub Hîncești at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.86 / 3.50 / 5.68 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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