KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești PREDICTION
UCL Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 16h 49m
1X2 · KF EgnatiaModel behind market recent
Market
1.83
price
54.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.86
fair price
53.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 45%
Model divergence -8.8 pts
Edge vs fair -1.5%
9 books priced
Model · 1X2
KF Egnatia
45%
Draw
29%
Petrocub Hîncești
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 54% / 29% / 18%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices KF Egnatia 45% against the market’s fair 54% — a -8.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): KF Egnatia 30% · Petrocub Hîncești 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
KF Egnatia
Petrocub Hîncești
UEFA Champions League Qualification
More UEFA Champions League Qualification fixtures
Universitatea Craiova v FC VitebskFC Atert Bissen v Klaksvíkar ÍtróttarfelagFK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat
Frequently asked questions
When do KF Egnatia play Petrocub Hîncești?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.
What does the model expect for KF Egnatia v Petrocub Hîncești?
The statistical model prices KF Egnatia at 45%, the draw at 29% and Petrocub Hîncești at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.