FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat PREDICTION
UCL Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 16h 41m
1X2 · FK Sutjeska NikšićModel behind market recent
Market
4.80
price
20.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
4.88
fair price
20.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 21%model 45%
Model divergence +24.5 pts
Edge vs fair -1.6%
8 books priced
Model · 1X2
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
45%
Draw
29%
FC Kairat
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 21% / 24% / 56%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices FK Sutjeska Nikšić 45% against the market’s fair 21% — a +24.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): FK Sutjeska Nikšić 29% · FC Kairat 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Full match viewOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
FK Sutjeska Nikšić
FC Kairat
UEFA Champions League Qualification
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Frequently asked questions
When do FK Sutjeska Nikšić play FC Kairat?
Kick-off is Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the UEFA Champions League Qualification.
What does the model expect for FK Sutjeska Nikšić v FC Kairat?
The statistical model prices FK Sutjeska Nikšić at 45%, the draw at 29% and FC Kairat at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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