Manchester United v Aston Villa — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPLAt a glance
Model edge
Members
free account
Fair price
Members
free account
Model prob
Members
free account
Reliability
—
qualification
Manchester UnitedvAston Villa
Sun 8 Nov, 16:30Manchester United2.32Betfair
Draw3.95Betfair
Aston Villa3.00Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 15 bookmakers · prices observed 22 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester
The full model view — probabilities, expected goals and the engine score needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Pricing board
The market pricing board needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Recorded price movement
Recorded price movement needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLLLDL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 0.92 / 2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | at Chelsea (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-25 | vs Bournemouth (H) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Como (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Como 1907 (A) | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-10-18 | at Leeds (A) | 1-1 | D |
DLWWLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.42 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | vs Fulham (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-10-28 | at Bournemouth (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-24 | vs Manchester City (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-21 | vs Viking (H) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-10-17 | at Potters Tigers (A) | 2-3 | L |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Buendía Midfielder |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.5 |
 George Hemmings Midfielder |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.3 |
 I. Maatsen Defender |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.9 |
 M. Bizot Goalkeeper |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
 M. Cash Defender |
1 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 17 | 7 | 9 | -5 | LLDDD |
| Aston Villa | 9 | 12 | 9 | -3 | DWWDW |
Manchester United: 14 pts behind 1st · 2 pts above 20th
Aston Villa: 9 pts behind 1st · 7 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-11-01.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Manchester United 4 wins1 drawAston Villa 1avg 2.5 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Manchester United FC v Aston Villa FC | 3-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-12-21 | Aston Villa FC v Manchester United FC | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Man United v Aston Villa | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 2024-10-06 | Aston Villa v Man United | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa FC v Manchester United FC | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-02-11 | Aston Villa v Man United | 1-2 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Manchester Unitedsnapshot 2026-11-01
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| N. Mazraoui | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Shaw | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Rashford | Missing Fixture | Hip Injury |
| T. Heaton | Missing Fixture | Abdominal strain |
| M. Mount | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| M. Ugarte | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Sesko | Missing Fixture | Leg Injury |
| A. Diallo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| K. Mainoo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| C. Baleba | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| P. Dorgu | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| A. Heaven | Missing Fixture | Illness |
| M. de Ligt | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| N. Mazraoui | Missing Fixture | Injury |
Aston Villasnapshot 2026-11-01
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| L. Goretzka | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| L. Bailey | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Wan-Bissaka | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Abraham | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Cash | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| O. Watkins | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Bizot | Missing Fixture | Back Injury |
| P. Torres | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| I. Maatsen | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| M. Ruggeri | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Onana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Joao Gomes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| G. Hemmings | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Manzambi | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Alysson | Missing Fixture | Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
The signal ledger needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Grounded team-news brief
The grounded team-news brief needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Module freshness: odds snapshot 31 Oct, 08:00 · model run 25 Oct, 00:53 · injury snapshot 2026-11-01
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More EPL fixtures
Liverpool v ArsenalNewcastle United v EvertonEverton v Coventry CityLeeds United v Tottenham HotspurFulham v Newcastle UnitedArsenal v Hull City
Frequently asked questions
When do Manchester United play Aston Villa?
Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 31 October at 08:00 UK time. · engine slate assembled 22 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
A free account unlocks:
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Create a free account
See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.