Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPL·Regular Season - 5·Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 UK·Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London· 14.8°C · 11.7 kph wind · 0.8 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Tottenham HotspurvAston Villa
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30Tottenham Hotspur2.10Betfair
Draw3.85Casumo
Aston Villa3.70Unibet (UK)
Best captured price per outcome · 17 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, LondonKickoff weather: 14.8°C · rain 0.8 mm · wind 11.7 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
DLWLDW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.5 / 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | at Nottingham Forest (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Newcastle (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-26 | vs Charlton (H) | 5-1 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | at Brentford (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-08-16 | vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) | 2-2 | D |
WWDLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.67 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at Club Brugge KV (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-09-08 | at Club Brugge (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Hull City (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-31 | vs Arsenal (H) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | at Brighton (A) | 0-4 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 18 | 1 | 3 | -5 | DLL |
| Aston Villa | 17 | 1 | 3 | -5 | DLL |
Tottenham Hotspur: 8 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 20th
Aston Villa: 8 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Tottenham Hotspur 4 wins0 drawsAston Villa 2avg 3.5 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 83%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Aston Villa FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2025-10-19 | Tottenham Hotspur FC v Aston Villa FC | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2025-05-16 | Aston Villa v Tottenham | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 2024-11-03 | Tottenham v Aston Villa | 4-1 | Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Aston Villa FC v Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0-4 | Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Aston Villa v Tottenham | 0-4 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Tottenham Hotspursnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. Kudus | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| J. Maddison | Missing Fixture | Knock |
| D. Kulusevski | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. Porro | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. van de Ven | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| X. Simons | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. M. Sarr | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| W. Odobert | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| M. Kudus | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| J. Maddison | Missing Fixture | Knock |
| D. Kulusevski | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. Porro | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. van de Ven | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| X. Simons | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. M. Sarr | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
Aston Villasnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| L. Bailey | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Abraham | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| O. Watkins | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| E. Martinez | Missing Fixture | Finger Injury |
| A. Onana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Joao Gomes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Manzambi | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| B. Madjo | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| L. Bailey | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Abraham | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| O. Watkins | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| E. Martinez | Missing Fixture | Finger Injury |
| A. Onana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Joao Gomes | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Manzambi | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 6 Sept, 07:06 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More EPL fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Tottenham Hotspur play Aston Villa?
Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.