BD

Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga - Germany·1 of 18 in the table·17 points·Signal Iduna Park

Next match Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Borussia Dortmund — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

55

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.5%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

2nd

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Tue 27 Oct19:45 Werder Bremen H — 1.40LeoVegas — Sat 31 Oct17:30 Bayern Munich A — 7.80Smarkets — Wed 4 Nov20:00 Real Betis H — 1.80Betfred —

Form

last 6

WDDWWW 14 pts from 6

H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 +0.8

A Union Berlin 0–0 -0.7

H Werder Bremen 2–2 -1.1

A VfB Stuttgart 1–0 +1.6

H SC Paderborn 07 3–0 +0.4

A 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2 +1.5

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+3.1 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 0.57 #1 of 18

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 18

Expected goals against 0.99 #2 of 18

Points over model expectation 3.1 #2 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.71 #9 of 18

Expected goals 1.85 #6 of 18

Shots 15.6 #10 of 18

On target 5.1 #11 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.57 #1 of 18

Expected against 0.99 #2 of 18

Shots faced 11.1 #3 of 18

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

27%

Scored before half time

of 11 goals

45%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 11 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 11 goals

60%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 5 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (16 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#1

Position

17

Points from 7 played

+8

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	8	17
2	Bayern München	6	17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	9	13

Borussia Dortmund and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Tue 27 Oct19:45in 9h 48m
   Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct17:30in 4d
   Bayern Munich Borussia Dortmund

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Wed 4 Nov20:00in 8d
   Borussia Dortmund Real Betis

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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