SF

SC Freiburg

Bundesliga - Germany·3 of 18 in the table·13 points·Europa-Park Stadion

Next match SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg Wed 28 Oct, 17:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for SC Freiburg — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

69.5

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

13th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Wed 28 Oct17:00 VfL Wolfsburg H — 1.47LeoVegas — Sat 31 Oct14:30 Augsburg A — 2.20Unibet —

Form

last 6

LLWDWW 10 pts from 6

H Bayern München 1–3 -0.7

A Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 -0.6

H FC Schalke 04 2–1 +1.6

A Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 +0.0

H Borussia Mönchengladbach 5–0 +1.5

A SC Paderborn 07 1–0 +1.5

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+4.8 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Points over model expectation 4.8 #1 of 18

Shots faced 10.3 #2 of 18

Goals conceded 1.29 #4 of 18

Goals scored 2.29 #5 of 18

Weaknesses

Expected goals for 1.27 #13 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.29 #5 of 18

Expected goals 1.27 #13 of 18

Shots 16.1 #8 of 18

On target 5.1 #12 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.29 #4 of 18

Expected against 1.38 #7 of 18

Shots faced 10.3 #2 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #7 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

53%

Scored before half time

of 15 goals

27%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 15 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 15 goals

40%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 10 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (25 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#3

Position

13

Points from 6 played

+9

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	7	8	17
2	Bayern München	6	17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	9	12

SC Freiburg and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct17:00in 36h 29m
   SC Freiburg VfL Wolfsburg

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct14:30in 4d
   Augsburg SC Freiburg

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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