RL

RB Leipzig

Bundesliga - Germany·5 of 18 in the table·12 points·Red Bull Arena

Next match FC Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig Sat 31 Oct, 14:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for RB Leipzig — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

54

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.6%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

4th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 31 Oct14:30 FC Schalke 04 A — 1.91Smarkets — Wed 4 Nov20:00 Manchester City H — 5.50Betfred —

Form

last 6

WLWLWL 9 pts from 6

H SV Elversberg 4–0 +1.1

A Bayern München 1–6 -0.6

H Eintracht Frankfurt 6–0 +0.8

A Bayer Leverkusen 0–2 -1.1

H Hamburger SV 5–0 +0.7

A Werder Bremen 1–3 -1.4

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+0.4 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals scored 2.86 #2 of 18

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 18

Expected goals for 2.39 #3 of 18

Shots on target 6.4 #4 of 18

Weaknesses

Expected goals against 2.01 #14 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.86 #2 of 18

Expected goals 2.39 #3 of 18

Shots 17.1 #6 of 18

On target 6.4 #4 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.57 #7 of 18

Expected against 2.01 #14 of 18

Shots faced 15.3 #9 of 18

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

35%

Scored before half time

of 20 goals

30%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 20 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 20 goals

9%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 11 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (31 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#5

Position

12

Points from 7 played

+9

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
3	SC Freiburg	6	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	3	10

RB Leipzig and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct14:30in 4d
   FC Schalke 04 RB Leipzig

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 4 Nov20:00in 8d
   RB Leipzig Manchester City

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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