FM0

FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga - Germany·7 of 18 in the table·10 points·Mewa Arena

Next match VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 Tue 27 Oct, 17:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for FSV Mainz 05 — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

54

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.2%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

12th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Tue 27 Oct17:00 VfL Bochum A — 1.71Grosvenor — Fri 30 Oct19:30 Elversberg A — 2.10LeoVegas —

Form

last 6

LWLWLW 9 pts from 6

H Werder Bremen 2–3 -1.4

A FC Schalke 04 1–0 +2.2

H Bayer Leverkusen 3–4 -1.1

A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3 +2.1

H Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 -1.5

A Hamburger SV 5–0 +1.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.4 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots 17.9 #4 of 18

Clean sheets 3 #4 of 18

Expected goals for 2.06 #5 of 18

Shots on target 6.3 #5 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.29 #6 of 18

Expected goals 2.06 #5 of 18

Shots 17.9 #4 of 18

On target 6.3 #5 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.86 #11 of 18

Expected against 1.54 #8 of 18

Shots faced 13.1 #6 of 18

Clean sheets 3 #4 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

53%

Scored before half time

of 17 goals

35%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 17 goals

6%

From the penalty spot

of 17 goals

7%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 14 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (31 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#7

Position

10

Points from 7 played

+3

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
5	RB Leipzig	7	9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	-3	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	4	9

FSV Mainz 05 and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Tue 27 Oct17:00in 13h 16m
   VfL Bochum FSV Mainz 05

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Fri 30 Oct19:30in 4d
   Elversberg FSV Mainz 05

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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