WB

Werder Bremen

Bundesliga - Germany·6 of 18 in the table·12 points·Weserstadion

Next match Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Werder Bremen — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

63.3

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

5th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Tue 27 Oct19:45 Borussia Dortmund A — 7.00888sport — Sat 31 Oct14:30 TSG Hoffenheim H — 3.05Casumo —

Form

last 6

WDDWDW 12 pts from 6

A FSV Mainz 05 3–2 +1.7

H SC Paderborn 07 2–2 -1.4

A Borussia Dortmund 2–2 +0.3

H FC Augsburg 3–2 +1.0

A 1. FC Köln 1–1 -0.4

H RB Leipzig 3–1 +1.7

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.5 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots on target 7 #2 of 18

Points over model expectation 1.5 #5 of 18

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 2 #13 of 18

Possession 46.3% #13 of 18

Clean sheets 0 #17 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.14 #7 of 18

Expected goals 1.78 #7 of 18

Shots 14.4 #12 of 18

On target 7 #2 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2 #13 of 18

Expected against 1.8 #10 of 18

Shots faced 15.7 #10 of 18

Clean sheets 0 #17 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

20%

Scored before half time

of 15 goals

40%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 15 goals

20%

From the penalty spot

of 15 goals

20%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 15 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (30 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#6

Position

12

Points from 7 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	1	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	3	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	-3	10

Werder Bremen and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Tue 27 Oct19:45in 15h 37m
   Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct14:30in 4d
   Werder Bremen TSG Hoffenheim

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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