BL

Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga - Germany·4 of 18 in the table·13 points·BayArena

Next match Bayer Leverkusen v 1. FC Nürnberg Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Bayer Leverkusen — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

68.9

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

3rd

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 1. FC Nürnberg H — 1.17888sport — Sat 31 Oct14:30 VfB Stuttgart H — 1.83Smarkets — Thu 5 Nov20:00 Marseille H — 1.42Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

LWWWDW 13 pts from 6

A 1899 Hoffenheim 0–3 -1.4

H SC Freiburg 2–1 +0.8

A FSV Mainz 05 4–3 +1.4

H RB Leipzig 2–0 +1.3

A FC Augsburg 2–2 -0.7

H Union Berlin 4–0 +0.8

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.1 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots 18.1 #2 of 18

Possession 57.9% #2 of 18

Goals scored 2.29 #4 of 18

Shots faced 12.9 #4 of 18

Weaknesses

Expected goals against 2.44 #15 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.29 #4 of 18

Expected goals 1.35 #12 of 18

Shots 18.1 #2 of 18

On target 5.4 #7 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.71 #8 of 18

Expected against 2.44 #15 of 18

Shots faced 12.9 #4 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #6 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

44%

Scored before half time

of 16 goals

25%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 16 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 16 goals

33%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 12 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (28 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#4

Position

13

Points from 6 played

+7

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
2	Bayern München	6	17	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	9	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	1	12

Bayer Leverkusen and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 36h 33m
   Bayer Leverkusen 1. FC Nürnberg

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct14:30in 4d
   Bayer Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Thu 5 Nov20:00in 10d
   Bayer Leverkusen Marseille

   UEL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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