T

Toulouse

Ligue 1 - France·12 of 18 in the table·9 points·Stadium de Toulouse

Next match Marseille v Toulouse Sun 1 Nov, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Toulouse — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

76.2

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

12th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sun 1 Nov19:45 Marseille A — 3.80Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

DWDWDL 9 pts from 6

H Estac Troyes 0–0 -0.9

A Le Mans 3–0 +2.0

A Monaco 2–2 +0.4

H Le Havre 3–2 +1.2

A Lorient 2–2 0.0

H Lille 0–1 -1.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.3 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 1.03 #2 of 18

Possession 51.8% #5 of 18

Weaknesses

Shots on target 4.4 #13 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.5 #10 of 18

Expected goals 1.57 #8 of 18

Shots 12.9 #10 of 18

On target 4.4 #13 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.38 #8 of 18

Expected against 1.03 #2 of 18

Shots faced 13.1 #11 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #10 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

8%

Scored before half time

of 12 goals

17%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 12 goals

17%

From the penalty spot

of 12 goals

27%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 11 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (23 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

L1 Ligue 1 - France 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

#12

Position

9

Points from 7 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
10	Marseille	7	4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	2	9
12	Toulouse	7	1	9
13	Auxerre	7	-6	9
14	Strasbourg	7	-3	7

Toulouse and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sun 1 Nov19:45in 6d
   Marseille Toulouse

   L1

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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