M

Marseille

Ligue 1 - France·10 of 18 in the table·9 points·Orange Vélodrome

Next match Marseille v Toulouse Sun 1 Nov, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Marseille — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

65.4

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

1st

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sun 1 Nov19:45 Toulouse H — 1.92Betfair Exchange — Thu 5 Nov20:00 Bayer Leverkusen A — 7.00Betfred —

Form

last 6

WWWLLL 9 pts from 6

H Le Havre 4–3 +0.8

A Angers 5–2 +1.4

A Estac Troyes 2–0 +1.3

H Paris Saint Germain 1–2 -1.4

A Rennes 0–1 -1.2

H Paris FC 2–3 -2.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-0.2 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals scored 2.25 #1 of 18

Possession 57% #2 of 18

Expected goals for 1.76 #6 of 18

Weaknesses

Points over model expectation -0.2 #14 of 18

Shots faced 16.5 #18 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.25 #1 of 18

Expected goals 1.76 #6 of 18

Shots 12.9 #9 of 18

On target 5 #8 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.63 #11 of 18

Expected against 1.61 #11 of 18

Shots faced 16.5 #18 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #7 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

26%

Scored before half time

of 19 goals

26%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 19 goals

16%

From the penalty spot

of 19 goals

38%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (32 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

L1 Ligue 1 - France 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#10

Position

9

Points from 7 played

+4

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
8	Lorient	7	1	11
9	Nice	8	-2	11
10	Marseille	7	4	9
11	Stade Brestois 29	8	2	9
12	Toulouse	7	1	9

Marseille and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sun 1 Nov19:45in 6d
   Marseille Toulouse

   L1

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Thu 5 Nov20:00in 10d
   Bayer Leverkusen Marseille

   UEL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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