Ajax v Excelsior — Dutch Eredivisie prediction, odds and analysis
ERE·Regular Season - 7·Sat 19 Sept, 19:00 UK·Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam· 13.2°C · 12.6 kph wind · 0.8 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
AjaxvExcelsior
Sat 19 Sept, 19:00Ajax1.36888sport
Draw5.50Betfred (UK)
Excelsior7.50Unibet (UK)
Best captured price per outcome · 12 bookmakers · prices observed 13 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamKickoff weather: 13.2°C · rain 0.8 mm · wind 12.6 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWWWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 3 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | vs PSV Eindhoven (H) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-08-30 | at Telstar (A) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | at Telstar 1963 (A) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-27 | vs FC Sion (H) | 5-3 | W |
| 2026-08-20 | at FC Sion (A) | 4-2 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bouwman Defender |
5 | 457 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 7.2 |
 Y. Regeer Midfielder |
5 | 412 | 0 | 1 | 1Y | 7.3 |
 M. Paes Goalkeeper |
4 | 367 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 D. Blind Defender |
4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.7 |
 S. Berghuis Attacker |
4 | 307 | 1 | 3 | — | 7.7 |
DWWLWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.83 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at NEC Nijmegen (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-09-05 | at Willem II (A) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Sparta Rotterdam (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-15 | vs PSV Eindhoven (H) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-08-07 | at Cambuur (A) | 4-0 | W |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Ajax 2 wins2 drawsExcelsior 0avg 5.3 goalsBTTS 100%Over 2.5 in 100%
small sample — 4 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-24 | Ajax v Excelsior | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2023-08-19 | Excelsior v Ajax | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2023-01-29 | Excelsior v Ajax | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| 2022-10-16 | Ajax v Excelsior | 7-1 | Eredivisie |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 7 Sept, 07:03
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Dutch Eredivisie fixtures
AZ Alkmaar v Willem IIFC Twente Enschede v ADO Den HaagGo Ahead Eagles v GroningenFortuna Sittard v AjaxSC Cambuur v NEC NijmegenHeerenveen v SC Telstar
Frequently asked questions
When do Ajax play Excelsior?
Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 19:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 13 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.