América Mineiro v Ceará

BSB Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK · in 3d Ask the analyst

1X2 · América MineiroMarket discrepancy recent

Market

2.63

price

38.0%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · sharp

2.62

fair price

38.2%

fair prob

Our model

1.47

model fair price

67.8%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 38%model 68%

Model divergence +29.6 pts Edge vs fair +0.5% 12 books priced

Model · 1X2

América Mineiro

68%

Draw

25%

Ceará

market fair (devig · sharp): 38% / 30% / 32%

Expected goals (λ)

1.664 — 0.4

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0

Engine confidence

unscored — outside the engine’s scan window

Model prices América Mineiro 68% against the market’s fair 38% — a +29.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Kickoff weather: 17.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 13 kph

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): América Mineiro 43% · Ceará 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Outcome	Model prob	Fair odds (sharp, devigged)	Best price	Edge vs fair
América Mineiro	67.8%	2.62	2.63	+0.5%
Draw	24.9%	3.37	3.10	-7.9%
Ceará	7.3%	3.13	3.00	-4%

Totals (2.5 goals line)

Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.61 — best captured prices.

Bookmaker board — who holds each price

Book	América Mineiro	Draw	Ceará
Virgin Bet	2.45	2.90	2.55
LiveScore Bet	2.45	2.90	2.55
Grosvenor	2.50	2.95	2.60
Casumo	2.63	3.10	2.70
LeoVegas	2.35	3.05	2.90
Betfred (UK)	2.40	3.00	2.80
Betway	2.40	3.10	2.88
Unibet (UK)	2.38	3.10	3.00
Paddy Power	2.40	3.00	2.80
Smarkets	2.22	2.84	2.78
Betano (UK)	2.38	2.90	2.88
Bet Victor	2.38	2.90	2.88

Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.

Sharp reference (raw): 2.48 / 3.19 / 2.96 — the line our fair odds devig from.

Odds movement

1X2 · América Mineiro — best price vs devigged fair line

Best price — América MineiroFair line (devig) — América Mineiro

Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.

América Mineiro

Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-13	H v Londrina	1-1	D

Ceará

DLLLLD

Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 25%

Date	Match	Score
2026-07-13	H v Athletic Club	0-0	D
2025-12-07	H v SE Palmeiras	1-3	L
2025-12-07	H v Palmeiras	1-3	L
2025-12-04	A v CR Flamengo	0-1	L
2025-12-04	A v Flamengo RJ	0-1	L

No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.

All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.

No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Prediction Odds & fair line Head-to-head América Mineiro Ceará Brazil Série B

More Brazil Série B fixtures

Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PE São Bernardo v Avai Juventude v Cuiabá Londrina v Botafogo Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino Criciuma v Vila Nova

Frequently asked questions

When do América Mineiro play Ceará?

Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.

What does the model expect for América Mineiro v Ceará?

The statistical model prices América Mineiro at 68%, the draw at 25% and Ceará at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

What are the fair odds for América Mineiro v Ceará?

Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.62 / 3.37 / 3.13 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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