São Bernardo v Avai
1X2 · São BernardoModel behind market recent
Market
1.93
price
51.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.07
fair price
48.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 48%model 68%
Model divergence +19.5 pts
Edge vs fair -6.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
São Bernardo
68%
Draw
25%
Avai
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 48% / 29% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices São Bernardo 68% against the market’s fair 48% — a +19.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): São Bernardo 43% · Avai 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 67.8% | 2.07 | 1.93 | -6.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.47 | 3.45 | -0.6% |
| Avai | 7.3% | 4.35 | 4.00 | -8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.18 · Under: 1.74 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | São Bernardo | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Grosvenor | 1.83 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Casumo | 1.89 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.82 | 2.96 | 3.65 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.96 / 3.29 / 4.12 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · São Bernardo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — São BernardoFair line (devig) — São Bernardo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
São Bernardo
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Cuiaba | 2-2 | D |
Avai
WWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Nautico Recife | 2-0 | W |
| 2022-11-12 | A v Flamengo RJ | 2-1 | W |
| 2022-11-09 | H v Ceara | 2-0 | W |
| 2022-11-05 | A v Santos | 1-1 | D |
| 2022-11-02 | H v Bragantino | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáJuventude v CuiabáLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio NovorizontinoCriciuma v Vila Nova
Frequently asked questions
When do São Bernardo play Avai?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for São Bernardo v Avai?
The statistical model prices São Bernardo at 68%, the draw at 25% and Avai at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for São Bernardo v Avai?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.07 / 3.47 / 4.35 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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