Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino
1X2 · FortalezaModel behind market recent
Market
2.10
price
47.6%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.21
fair price
45.3%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 45%model 68%
Model divergence +22.5 pts
Edge vs fair -4.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Fortaleza
68%
Draw
25%
Grêmio Novorizontino
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 45% / 33% / 22%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Fortaleza 68% against the market’s fair 45% — a +22.5 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 25.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.5 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Fortaleza 43% · Grêmio Novorizontino 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza | 67.8% | 2.21 | 2.10 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.03 | 3.20 | +5.6% |
| Grêmio Novorizontino | 7.3% | 4.61 | 4.20 | -8.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.12 · Under: 1.70 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Fortaleza | Draw | Grêmio Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Grosvenor | 2.00 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.96 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.96 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.05 | 3.70 |
| Smarkets | 1.90 | 2.86 | 3.55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Paddy Power | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.00 | 3.12 | 3.50 |
| Bet Victor | 2.00 | 3.12 | 3.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.09 / 2.87 / 4.37 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Fortaleza — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — FortalezaFair line (devig) — Fortaleza
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Fortaleza
LLLWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.92 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Atletico Goianiense | 0-1 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | A v Botafogo FR | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-12-07 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-4 | L |
| 2025-12-03 | H v SC Corinthians Paulista | 2-1 | W |
| 2025-12-03 | H v Corinthians | 2-1 | W |
Grêmio Novorizontino
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Fortaleza play Grêmio Novorizontino?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 01:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino?
The statistical model prices Fortaleza at 68%, the draw at 25% and Grêmio Novorizontino at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Fortaleza v Grêmio Novorizontino?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.21 / 3.03 / 4.61 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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