Criciuma v Vila Nova
1X2 · CriciumaModel behind market recent
Market
1.73
price
57.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.78
fair price
56.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 68%
Model divergence +11.7 pts
Edge vs fair -2.9%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Criciuma
68%
Draw
25%
Vila Nova
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 28% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
High confidence · 73/100
Model prices Criciuma 68% against the market’s fair 56% — a +11.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 29.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 11.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Criciuma 43% · Vila Nova 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 67.8% | 1.78 | 1.73 | -2.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.57 | 3.50 | -2% |
| Vila Nova | 7.3% | 6.29 | 5.25 | -16.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.25 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Criciuma | Draw | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.61 | 3.25 | 4.70 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.61 | 3.25 | 4.70 |
| Casumo | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.10 |
| Grosvenor | 1.65 | 3.35 | 4.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.67 | 3.35 | 5.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.70 | 3.30 | 5.25 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.61 | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.70 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| Coral | 1.70 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.68 / 3.37 / 5.94 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Criciuma — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CriciumaFair line (devig) — Criciuma
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Criciuma
LLLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | A v Bragantino | 1-5 | L |
| 2024-12-04 | H v Flamengo RJ | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-11-30 | H v Corinthians | 2-4 | L |
| 2024-11-26 | A v Fluminense | 0-0 | D |
| 2024-11-20 | H v Vitoria | 0-1 | L |
Vila Nova
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Criciuma play Vila Nova?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Criciuma v Vila Nova?
The statistical model prices Criciuma at 68%, the draw at 25% and Vila Nova at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Criciuma v Vila Nova?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.78 / 3.57 / 6.29 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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