Londrina v Botafogo 
1X2 · LondrinaModel behind market recent
Market
2.43
price
41.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.47
fair price
40.5%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 68%
Model divergence +27.3 pts
Edge vs fair -1.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Londrina
68%
Draw
25%
Botafogo
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 31% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Londrina 68% against the market’s fair 41% — a +27.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Londrina 43% · Botafogo 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | 67.8% | 2.47 | 2.43 | -1.6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.27 | 3.20 | -2.1% |
| Botafogo | 7.3% | 3.46 | 3.25 | -6.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.33 · Under: 1.57 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Londrina | Draw | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo | 2.43 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.30 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
| Grosvenor | 2.35 | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.30 | 2.85 | 2.85 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| Betway | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Bet Victor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Coral | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.25 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.34 / 3.10 / 3.28 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Londrina — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — LondrinaFair line (devig) — Londrina
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Londrina
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | A v America Mineiro | 1-1 | D |
BotafogoNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Londrina play Botafogo?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 01:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Londrina v Botafogo?
The statistical model prices Londrina at 68%, the draw at 25% and Botafogo at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Londrina v Botafogo?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.47 / 3.27 / 3.46 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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