Londrina v Botafogo 
PREDICTION
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 01:00 UK · in 3d
1X2 · LondrinaModel behind market recent
Market
2.43
price
41.2%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.47
fair price
40.5%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 41%model 68%
Model divergence +27.3 pts
Edge vs fair -1.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Londrina
68%
Draw
25%
Botafogo
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 41% / 31% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Londrina 68% against the market’s fair 41% — a +27.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Londrina 43% · Botafogo 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Londrina play Botafogo?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 01:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Londrina v Botafogo?
The statistical model prices Londrina at 68%, the draw at 25% and Botafogo at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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