Juventude v Cuiabá
1X2 · JuventudeModel behind market recent
Market
2.16
price
46.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.25
fair price
44.4%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 44%model 68%
Model divergence +23.4 pts
Edge vs fair -4.1%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Juventude
68%
Draw
25%
Cuiabá
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 44% / 33% / 23%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Juventude 68% against the market’s fair 44% — a +23.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 23°C · rain 0 mm · wind 17.9 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Juventude 43% · Cuiabá 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 67.8% | 2.25 | 2.16 | -4.1% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.06 | 3.05 | -0.3% |
| Cuiabá | 7.3% | 4.37 | 4.30 | -1.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Juventude | Draw | Cuiabá |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.92 | 2.88 | 3.65 |
| Grosvenor | 1.95 | 2.95 | 3.75 |
| Casumo | 2.02 | 3.05 | 3.95 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.92 | 2.88 | 3.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 2.85 | 3.90 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.05 | 2.88 | 4.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.00 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.94 | 2.68 | 3.70 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 2.88 | 4.00 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.05 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.10 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.13 / 2.89 / 4.14 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Juventude — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — JuventudeFair line (devig) — Juventude
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Juventude
DLDLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | A v Corinthians | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-12-03 | H v Santos | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-11-28 | H v Bahia | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-11-23 | A v Sao Paulo | 1-2 | L |
| 2025-11-20 | H v Cruzeiro | 3-3 | D |
Cuiabá
DLLLDL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 33% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v São Bernardo | 2-2 | D |
| 2024-12-08 | H v Vasco | 1-2 | L |
| 2024-12-05 | A v Fluminense | 0-1 | L |
| 2024-11-30 | H v Bahia | 1-2 | L |
| 2024-11-23 | A v Juventude | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 1-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-09-06 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-08-14 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2022-04-24 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-09-11 | Juventude v Cuiaba | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2021-05-29 | Cuiaba v Juventude | 2-2 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
Clube de Regatas Brasil v Nautico PEAmérica Mineiro v CearáSão Bernardo v AvaiLondrina v BotafogoFortaleza v Grêmio NovorizontinoCriciuma v Vila Nova
Frequently asked questions
When do Juventude play Cuiabá?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 23:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Juventude v Cuiabá?
The statistical model prices Juventude at 68%, the draw at 25% and Cuiabá at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Juventude v Cuiabá?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.25 / 3.06 / 4.37 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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