Criciuma v Vila Nova PREDICTION
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · CriciumaModel behind market recent
Market
1.73
price
57.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.78
fair price
56.1%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 68%
Model divergence +11.7 pts
Edge vs fair -2.9%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Criciuma
68%
Draw
25%
Vila Nova
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 56% / 28% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
High confidence · 73/100
Model prices Criciuma 68% against the market’s fair 56% — a +11.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 29.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 11.7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Criciuma 43% · Vila Nova 3% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Criciuma play Vila Nova?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Criciuma v Vila Nova?
The statistical model prices Criciuma at 68%, the draw at 25% and Vila Nova at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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