Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad — La Liga - Spain prediction, odds and analysis
LALAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Athletic BilbaovReal Sociedad
Sun 1 Nov, 20:00Athletic Bilbao2.20Betfair
Draw3.65Betfair
Real Sociedad3.60Casumo
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 14 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: San Mamés Stadium, BilbaoKickoff weather: 12.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 4 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WLLLDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.08 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs Getafe (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-10-23 | at Operario-PR (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Levante (A) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-10-21 | at Levante UD (A) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-10-18 | at Avai (A) | 0-0 | D |
WWWWDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.75 / 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs Levante (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-22 | at Lillestrom (A) | 6-0 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | at Malaga (A) | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | at Málaga CF (A) | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-10-15 | at Union St. Gilloise (A) | 1-1 | D |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao | 15 | 9 | 8 | -1 | LDDD |
| Real Sociedad | 5 | 16 | 9 | 0 | WWWLW |
Athletic Bilbao: 18 pts behind 1st · 4 pts above 20th
Real Sociedad: 11 pts behind 1st · 11 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-10-25.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Athletic Bilbao 3 wins2 drawsReal Sociedad 1avg 2.3 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 1-1 | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Sociedad de Fútbol v Athletic Club | 3-2 | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-04 | Sociedad v Ath Bilbao | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-24 | Ath Bilbao v Sociedad | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 2024-01-13 | Athletic Club v Real Sociedad de Fútbol | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 2024-01-13 | Ath Bilbao v Sociedad | 2-1 | Primera Division |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Athletic Bilbaosnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A. Laporte | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| D. Vivian | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| G. Guruzeta | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| O. Sancet | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| B. Prados Diaz | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| U. Vencedor | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| N. Williams | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Djalo | Missing Fixture | Illness |
| N. Serrano | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| U. Egiluz | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. Canales | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Laporte | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| D. Vivian | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| G. Guruzeta | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| O. Sancet | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
Real Sociedadsnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A. Odriozola | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| G. Guedes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Y. Herrera | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| I. Zubeldia | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| O. Oskarsson | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Pacheco | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| J. Aramburu | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| J. Gorrotxategi | Missing Fixture | Groin Injury |
| P. Marin | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| L. Beitia | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| H. Fort | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| J. Martin | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| A. Odriozola | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| G. Guedes | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Y. Herrera | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 19 Oct, 07:03 · injury snapshot 2026-10-25
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Athletic Bilbao play Real Sociedad?
Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 UK time in the La Liga - Spain.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 14 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.