Atlante FC v América
1X2 · Atlante FCModel behind market recent
Market
4.20
price
23.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
4.63
fair price
21.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 22%model 45%
Model divergence +23.8 pts
Edge vs fair -9.3%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atlante FC
45%
Draw
28%
América
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 22% / 25% / 53%
Expected goals (λ)
1.57 — 1.153
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atlante FC 45% against the market’s fair 22% — a +23.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.57–1.153 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlante FC 32% · América 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 45.4% | 4.63 | 4.20 | -9.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 3.97 | 3.60 | -9.3% |
| América | 26.4% | 1.88 | 1.70 | -9.4% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atlante FC | Draw | América |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 4.20 | 3.55 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| 888sport | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Sky Bet | 3.80 | 3.30 | 1.67 |
| Paddy Power | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlante FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlante FCFair line (devig) — Atlante FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlante FC
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 2.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-27 | A v Chiapas | 2-5 | L |
| 2014-04-20 | H v Club Tijuana | 1-2 | L |
| 2014-04-14 | A v Santos Laguna | 3-4 | L |
| 2014-04-06 | H v Tigres UANL | 0-2 | L |
| 2014-03-30 | A v Monterrey | 2-3 | L |
América
LWLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 2.25
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-06 | A v Goiás EC | 0-1 | L |
| 2023-12-03 | H v EC Bahia | 3-2 | W |
| 2023-11-30 | A v SE Palmeiras | 0-4 | L |
| 2023-11-26 | H v CR Flamengo | 0-3 | L |
| 2023-11-12 | A v CR Vasco da Gama | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Liga MX fixtures
Necaxa v Atlante FCTijuana v TigresLeón v AtlasAtlético San Luis v Cruz AzulFC Juárez v PueblaPumas v Pachuca
Frequently asked questions
When do Atlante FC play América?
Kick-off is Sat 25 Jul, 04:00 UK time in the Liga MX.
What does the model expect for Atlante FC v América?
The statistical model prices Atlante FC at 45%, the draw at 28% and América at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atlante FC v América?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 4.63 / 3.97 / 1.88 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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