Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia
PDA1X2 · Atlético TucumanModel behind market recent
Market
2.60
price
38.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.80
fair price
35.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.31
model fair price
43.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 36%model 43%
Model divergence +7.6 pts
Edge vs fair -7.2%
6 books priced
Model · 1X2
Atlético Tucuman
43%
Draw
32%
Independiente Rivadavia
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 36% / 31% / 34%
Expected goals (λ)
1.31 — 0.945
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Atlético Tucuman 43% against the market’s fair 36% — a +7.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.31–0.945 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 15.9°C · rain 0 mm · wind 12.1 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Atlético Tucuman 26% · Independiente Rivadavia 14% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Tucuman | 43.3% | 2.80 | 2.60 | -7.2% |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.26 | 3.00 | -7.9% |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 25.2% | 2.98 | 2.87 | -3.6% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Atlético Tucuman | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.60 |
| Paddy Power | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| BoyleSports | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.87 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.67 / 3.10 / 2.84 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Atlético Tucuman — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Atlético TucumanFair line (devig) — Atlético Tucuman
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Atlético Tucuman
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Independiente Rivadavia
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
PredictionOdds & fair lineHead-to-head
Atlético Tucuman
Independiente Rivadavia
Primera División - Argentina
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Frequently asked questions
When do Atlético Tucuman play Independiente Rivadavia?
Kick-off is Sun 26 Jul, 19:00 UK time in the Primera División - Argentina.
What does the model expect for Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia?
The statistical model prices Atlético Tucuman at 43%, the draw at 32% and Independiente Rivadavia at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Atlético Tucuman v Independiente Rivadavia?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.80 / 3.26 / 2.98 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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