Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC
SLC1X2 · Beijing FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.40
price
71.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.46
fair price
68.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 69%model 46%
Model divergence -22.9 pts
Edge vs fair -3.8%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Beijing FC
46%
Draw
27%
Liaoning Tieren FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 69% / 18% / 13%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Beijing FC 46% against the market’s fair 69% — a -22.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Beijing FC 33% · Liaoning Tieren FC 19% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing FC | 45.8% | 1.46 | 1.40 | -3.8% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 5.49 | 5.50 | +0.1% |
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 27.4% | 7.63 | 7.40 | -3.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Beijing FC | Draw | Liaoning Tieren FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.36 | 4.85 | 6.20 |
| 888sport | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.40 |
| Betway | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.34 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.34 | 4.70 | 6.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.37 / 5.17 / 7.16 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Beijing FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Beijing FCFair line (devig) — Beijing FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Beijing FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Liaoning Tieren FC
WWWDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.42 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | H v Shanghai Port | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Zhejiang Professional | 5-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | H v Qingdao Hainiu | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Wuhan Three Towns | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Yunnan Yukun | 1-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCHenan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FCShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Beijing FC play Liaoning Tieren FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC?
The statistical model prices Beijing FC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Liaoning Tieren FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.46 / 5.49 / 7.63 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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