Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC
SLC1X2 · Henan FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.58
price
63.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.63
fair price
61.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 62%model 46%
Model divergence -15.7 pts
Edge vs fair -2.8%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Henan FC
46%
Draw
27%
Qingdao Hainiu FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 62% / 22% / 17%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 70/100
Model prices Henan FC 46% against the market’s fair 62% — a -15.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Henan FC 32% · Qingdao Hainiu FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan FC | 45.8% | 1.63 | 1.58 | -2.8% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.7% |
| Qingdao Hainiu FC | 27.4% | 5.99 | 5.50 | -8.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.64 · Under: 2.20 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Henan FC | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Betway | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| 888sport | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.50 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Grosvenor | 1.55 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.50 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.53 / 4.30 / 5.64 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Henan FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Henan FCFair line (devig) — Henan FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Henan FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Qingdao Hainiu FC
LLLLLW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.75 / 1.67
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | A v Zhejiang | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-20 | A v Liaoning Tieren | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-15 | A v Beijing Guoan | 2-4 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FCShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Henan FC play Qingdao Hainiu FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC?
The statistical model prices Henan FC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Qingdao Hainiu FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.63 / 4.57 / 5.99 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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