Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC PREDICTION
SLC Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK · in 2d1X2 · Henan FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.58
price
63.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.63
fair price
61.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.18
model fair price
45.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 62%model 46%
Model divergence -15.7 pts
Edge vs fair -2.8%
Confidence High
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Henan FC
46%
Draw
27%
Qingdao Hainiu FC
27%
market fair (devig · sharp): 62% / 22% / 17%
Expected goals (λ)
1.7 — 1.278
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
High confidence · 70/100
Model prices Henan FC 46% against the market’s fair 62% — a -15.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.7–1.278 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Henan FC 32% · Qingdao Hainiu FC 18% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Super League - China fixtures
Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FCBeijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FCYunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FCChongqing Tonglianglong FC v ZhejiangDalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FCShanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Henan FC play Qingdao Hainiu FC?
Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 12:35 UK time in the Super League - China.
What does the model expect for Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC?
The statistical model prices Henan FC at 46%, the draw at 27% and Qingdao Hainiu FC at 27%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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