Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC

SLC Fri 17 Jul, 13:00 UK · in 2d Ask the analyst

1X2 · Shanghai SIPG FCModel behind market recent

Market

2.55

price

39.2%

implied · incl. margin

Fair · devigged · sharp

2.58

fair price

38.7%

fair prob

Our model

1.98

model fair price

50.6%

model prob · D-C + ELO

market fair 39%model 51%

Model divergence +11.9 pts Edge vs fair -1.3% 12 books priced

Model · 1X2

Yunnan Yukun

26%

Draw

24%

Shanghai SIPG FC

51%

market fair (devig · sharp): 37% / 24% / 39%

Expected goals (λ)

1.455 — 2.077

Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1

Engine confidence

unscored — outside the engine’s scan window

Model prices Shanghai SIPG FC 51% against the market’s fair 39% — a +11.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.455–2.077 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.

Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Yunnan Yukun 20% · Shanghai SIPG FC 39% — relevant to 2-Up markets.

No grounded brief yet

Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.

Outcome	Model prob	Fair odds (sharp, devigged)	Best price	Edge vs fair
Yunnan Yukun	25.8%	2.68	2.55	-4.9%
Draw	23.6%	4.17	4.20	+0.8%
Shanghai SIPG FC	50.6%	2.58	2.55	-1.3%

Bookmaker board — who holds each price

Book	Yunnan Yukun	Draw	Shanghai SIPG FC
Betfred (UK)	2.50	4.00	2.30
LeoVegas	2.45	3.75	2.35
Paddy Power	2.50	4.00	2.30
Unibet (UK)	2.55	3.80	2.40
Betfair Sportsbook	2.55	4.00	2.38
Betway	2.50	3.80	2.40
BoyleSports	2.30	3.60	2.15
888sport	2.50	3.60	2.30
William Hill	2.50	3.60	2.30
Virgin Bet	2.30	3.60	2.48
Grosvenor	2.38	3.75	2.55
LiveScore Bet	2.30	3.60	2.48

Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.

Sharp reference (raw): 2.54 / 3.95 / 2.45 — the line our fair odds devig from.

Odds movement

1X2 · Shanghai SIPG FC — best price vs devigged fair line

Best price — Shanghai SIPG FCFair line (devig) — Shanghai SIPG FC

Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.

Yunnan Yukun

DLDWWL

Goals for/against (last 12): 1.58 / 1.75
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%

Date	Match	Score
2026-05-31	A v Wuhan Three Towns	1-1	D
2026-05-24	H v Qingdao West Coast	2-3	L
2026-05-20	A v Chongqing Tonglianglong	0-0	D
2026-05-16	H v Shanghai Shenhua	1-0	W
2026-05-10	A v Liaoning Tieren	2-1	W

Shanghai SIPG FC

DLDDDD

Goals for/against (last 12): 0.92 / 0.92
Over 2.5 goals: 25% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 25%

Date	Match	Score
2020-11-11	A v Beijing Guoan	1-1	D
2020-11-07	H v Beijing Guoan	1-2	L
2020-11-02	H v Jiangsu Suning	1-1	D
2020-10-29	A v Jiangsu Suning	1-1	D
2020-10-23	H v Shanghai Shenhua	1-1	D

No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.

All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.

No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.

No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.

Prediction Odds & fair line Head-to-head Yunnan Yukun Shanghai SIPG FC Super League - China

More Super League - China fixtures

Qingdao West Coast FC v Chengdu Rongcheng FC Beijing FC v Liaoning Tieren FC Henan FC v Qingdao Hainiu FC Chongqing Tonglianglong FC v Zhejiang Dalian Yingbo v Shandong Luneng Taishan FC Shanghai Shenhua FC v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger FC

Frequently asked questions

When do Yunnan Yukun play Shanghai SIPG FC?

Kick-off is Fri 17 Jul, 13:00 UK time in the Super League - China.

What does the model expect for Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC?

The statistical model prices Yunnan Yukun at 26%, the draw at 24% and Shanghai SIPG FC at 51%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.

What are the fair odds for Yunnan Yukun v Shanghai SIPG FC?

Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.68 / 4.17 / 2.58 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.

Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.

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